THE REDBIRD REVIEW
It wasn’t a great road trip to Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Houston. The Cardinals lost two of the three series and finished 4-5 overall. But this is nothing to stress over. It could have been better, yes. But it could have been flat-out terrible.
After going 2-1 against the Reds, the Cardinals lost the first two games at Philadelphia. They also lost the first two games at Houston. In both situations the Cardinals were in danger of being swept. But they prevented that by getting a victory in the final game at Philly, and doing it again in the last game at Houston.
When you lose the first two games of a series, you can’t do nothing to go back and change it. But what you can do is dig in and deny the other team a three-game sweep. That’s the only remaining goal. The Cardinals came through both times. Had they lost the final game against the Phillies and Astros, the Cardinals would have returned home with a 2-7 record on the trip. They would have been in a more demoralizing situation in the standings.
That said, it’s important for the Cardinals to do well over the next 30 games. Starting Thursday night against the visiting Rockies, the Cardinals will play seven of their next nine series against opponents that currently have losing records.
Only one series in the next 30 games will come against a winning team, Atlanta. Another series will be played against the Cubs, who are .500 as I type this.
As for the other 24 games, it looks like this: six games with the Pirates (29-32), four vs. the Rockies (21-40), four with the Nationals (27-34), four vs. the Reds (29-33) and three games apiece versus the Marlins (21-41) and Giants (30-33).
Then again, the Cardinals haven’t been above .500 since April 6. So the teams they’ll play over the next 30 games are probably looking at St. Louis and thinking something along the lines of “nothing special, we can beat them.” And the Cardinals aren’t exactly bullies when matched with teams that are .500 or worse. They’re 17-15 against that caliber of opponent.
The Cardinals need to make something happen between now and July 8. That’s when the 30-game stretch ends. In a weak National League, only four of the 15 teams had winning records as of this morning. The Cardinals should be able to contend for a playoff spot. The Redbirds will have more credibility if they can get over .500 and stay there.
After the nine-game road trip, I’m in the mood to take an updated look at the state of the Cardinals …
WHAT I LIKE ABOUT THE CARDINALS
1. Their top four starting pitchers have done a good job. More on that later. And the turnaround by Miles Mikolas is making an impact.
2. The reliability of the bullpen in protecting leads. I know one got away on Monday night in Houston, but that’s no reason to overreact. This season the Cardinals are 18-3 when leading through six innings, 25-2 when leading through seven, and 26-0 when leading through eight innings.
3. Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn. His 130 OPS+ is tied with Nolan Gorman for second best on the team behind Willson Contreras (170 OPS+)
4. Gorman’s fireworks show. But he can’t go back into another extreme-strikeout phase. Gorman is seventh in the NL with a .497 slugging percentage and must keep it up.
5. The improved hitting performance of Alec Burleson. Since April 30, Burly is hitting .280 with a .500 slugging percentage and 12 of his 33 hits have gone for extra bases.
Bonus: I would also like to mention the way the Cardinals have responded after losing catcher Willson Contreras (fractured forearm) on May 7. Since Contreras went to the IL, the Cardinals are 14-10.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE ABOUT THE CARDINALS
1. The shortage of established, proven starting-pitching depth. The first-place Brewers have six starting pitchers on the IL – and that’s after trading their ace (Corbin Burnes) to Baltimore. Despite all of that, Milwaukee ranks eighth in the majors for the best starting-pitching ERA. The Cardinals lose one starter (Steven Matz) to injury and have no clue as to what to do. They couldn’t even fill the void at one rotation spot. Embarrassing.
2. The horrendous performance in the area of timely hitting. The Cardinals’ .210 batting average with runners in scoring position would be the worst by the franchise in a season since RISP stats first were tracked in 1912. This failure is paramount in the team’s average of 3.90 runs per game that ranks 14th in the NL.
3. An outfield that’s a severe liability offensively. Sure, a lot of this has to do with injuries to Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson – as well as the early-season collapse of Jordan Walker’s hitting, an unexpected development that led to a demotion to Triple A Memphis. But that doesn’t change the reality, and the reality is absolutely hideous. And once again the shortage of quality depth is a factor.
As a group – and this does not include any DH stats – St. Louis outfielders are batting .207 with a .279 onbase percentage and .327 slugging percentage. That ranks last in the NL in all three categories. The STL outfielders are also last in the NL with 13 home runs.
4. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and waiting for something to change … if at all. Per OPS+, both hitters are below league average offensively. This, coming two years after Goldschmidt and Arenado were 77 percent and 51 percent above league average respectively. This season the MLB-wide slugging percentage is .388. Going into Thursday, Goldy is slugging .354 and Arenado is at .376.
5. Two things: (A) too many errors on defense in recent weeks. Focus. Concentrate. Clean it up. And (B) middle-innings relief. And we don’t know if Giovanny Gallegos will truly reinforce the middle when he returns from the IL.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 29-31. They trail the first-place Brewers by six games and the second-place Cubs by one game in the NL Central standings … combining their previous homestand with the just completed road trip, the Cardinals are 11-6 in their last 17 games … the Redbirds are 14-7 in their last 21 games. Since May 12, the only MLB teams with a higher winning percentage than St. Louis (.667) are the Yankees (.818), Guardians (.800) and Phillies (.696) … the Cardinals are 16-19 on the road this season. They are one of 17 major-league teams that have losing records so far in 2024.
MILES MIKOLAS, TIP O’ THE CAP: To me, this is one of the most intriguing developments of the Cardinals’ season to date. To put it simply: Mikolas has been the team’s most consistent starting pitcher since April 26. Here’s why I say this …
St. Louis Quality Starts Since April 26:
Miles Mikolas 5
Kyle Gibson 3
Sonny Gray 2
Lance Lynn 2
Andre Pallante 1
* The Cardinals have a 14-7 record since May 12, and over that time Mikolas has as many quality starts (4) as Lynn (2), Gibson (1), Pallante (1) and Gray (0) combined.
* That’s right: Gray doesn’t have a quality start in his four outings since May 12 — and Mikolas has four. I don’t think we would have predicted that.
* Since May 12, the Cardinals are 4-1 in games started by Mikolas. And they’re a combined 6-2 in Gibson–Gray starts and 3-3 in Lynn-Pallante starts.
* Mikolas has a 3.72 ERA in his last five starts. But if we go back to April 26, he has pitched well in seven of his eight starts. The righthander had one lousy start against the Mets on May 7, and a 3.76 ERA in his other seven assignments. Mikolas allowed no more than three earned runs in those seven good starts since April 26 and five were quality starts.
* Here are the ERAs of the Cards’ primary four starting pitchers during their 14-7 stretch since May 12: Lynn 2.14, Mikolas 3.72, Gibson 3.74 and Gray 4.15. Pallante and Liberatore had a combined 8.21 ERA in four starts and 15 and ⅓ innings.
* Through Wednesday, Mikolas was tied for sixth in the majors with four quality starts since May 12. And in his last five starts Mikolas has limited opponents to a .212 average, .261 onbase percentage and .365 slug. And he’s walked only seven of 111 batters faced (6.3%).
THE THREE-HEADED MONSTER: That’s what Winn calls the late-inning security force led by setup relievers JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge and the closer Ryan Helsley. They handled the final three innings of Wednesday’s 4-2 win at Houston and did the job without incident. OK, Kittredge walked a hitter, but none of the other nine Astros hitters reached base. Helsley, Kittredge and Romero struck out four of their 10 batters faced, or 40 percent.
In games won by the Cardinals this season, Romero, Kittredge and Helsley have combined for a 2.35 ERA and 26 percent strikeout rate in 84 innings.
Helsley leads the majors with 20 saves, and has only one blown save. In his 20 saves Helsley has a 1.80 ERA and has struck out 25 batters in 20 innings, which averages to 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Romero leads the majors with 19 holds; Kittredge is third with 17.
Nice work, you beasts.
SICKLY OFFENSE FROM CENTER FIELDERS: This is nearly beyond belief. Heading into Thursday, the Cardinals have gotten a .161 batting average, .217 onbase percentage, .210 slugging percentage and one home run from the center-field position this season. Per wRC+, the group is 73 percent below league average offensively. (Those stats are from Fangraphs.)
Here are the batting averages of the guys used at center field this season – and does not include any numbers from their hitting at other positions:
Victor Scott, .085 in 65 plate appearances
Dylan Carlson, .000 in 14 PA.
Michael Siani, .208 in 118 PA
Lars Nootbaar, .300 in 11 PA.
Nootbaar was 3 for 10 before getting hurt and going on the IL for the second time this season. But Noot also struck out four times in those 10 at bats when used at center field.
Scott, Carlson and Siani have gone a combined 27 for 176 for a .153 batting average
JUST THE FACTS
Here are some notable offensive performances during the Cardinals’ 4-5 road trip to Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Houston:
– Nolan Gorman muscled for six homers, a double, an .829 slugging percentage and 10 RBIs in 35 at-bats. Gorman also scored eight runs.
– Masyn Winn batted .345 overall with a double, homer, four runs and six RBIs.
– Winn went 4 for 6 (.667) with runners in scoring position during the trip. The other 12 Cardinals who plate appearances with runners in scoring position had 5 hits in 49 at-bats for a combined .102 average.
– Before the start of the road trip, Nolan Arenado had three homers in 194 at-bats. During the road trip Arenado had three homers in 32 at-bats.
– Arenado hit one homer at Cincinnati, one at Philly and one at Houston. Five of Arenado’s six home runs this year have been blasted on the road.
– Alec Burleson didn’t hit for average on the trip (.156) but a big part of that was unfortunate batted-ball luck. Burleson had a 42 percent hard-hit rate in the nine games and hammered three home runs and a double to drive in six runs.
– Brandon Crawford started a game in each city and went 3 for 6 with a double, homer, two runs and an RBI.
– Ivan Herrera went 10 for 35 on the trip, and four of his hits went for doubles. Since Contreras was placed on the IL, Herrera is batting .312 with a .391 onbase percentage. Over that time the only Cardinal with a higher batting average than Herrera is Winn at .364.
– Some of Herrera’s at-bats since May 7 have come as a DH. But when specifically in the lineup as a catcher, Herrera is batting .338 with a .423 OBP since Contreras got injured.
NEXT UP: WELCOME, ROCKIES: Colorado is 21-40 overall and 8-23 on the road. The Rockies have been swept in four road series already. They’ve played nine road series and lost eight of them. The Rox somehow swept a three-game series at San Diego and recently one two of three from the Phillies at Coors Field.
As the Rockies come into Busch Stadium for a four-game set, their hitters rank 26th in the majors with a .652 road OPS. And their pitchers rank 29th with a 5.39 road ERA.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.
Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.
Bernie Miklasz
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
