For the first time in nearly a decade, there’s a palpable buzz surrounding the George Washington Men’s Basketball program—a buzz that feels less like hope and more like certainty. After years of turmoil, from the Mike Lonergan-Patrick Nero scandal to leadership turnover and even a name change, GW finally seems to have found its footing. And with stability comes expectation: this year’s team is being hailed as the most competitive since the 2015-16 NIT Championship squad that featured three future NBA players—Yuta Watanabe, Patricio Garino, and Tyler Cavanaugh. But here’s where it gets controversial: can this team truly live up to the hype, or are expectations setting them up for a fall? Let’s dive in.
GW is ranked fourth in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll—their highest position since that storied 2015-16 season. Four players—senior center Rafael Castro (First Team), Duquesne transfer Tre Dinkins III (Second Team), junior guard Trey Autry (Third Team), and redshirt-sophomore guard Christian Jones (Third Team)—have earned preseason All-Conference honors. Only VCU matches this feat, underscoring GW’s depth and talent. And this is the part most people miss: with a significant NIL budget and increased support from university president Ellen Granberg and athletic director Michael Lipitz, GW has quietly built a roster capable of dominating the A-10.
The foundation of this success? Retention. Castro, a defensive powerhouse who averaged 14.0 points and 8.9 rebounds last season, returned early in the offseason, instantly becoming an A-10 Player of the Year contender. Autry and Jones, one of the nation’s most impressive young guard tandems, are back too, alongside promising sophomore Ty Bevins. But the most critical return might be redshirt junior forward Garrett Johnson, who missed last season due to health issues. Johnson’s sharpshooting (40.3% from three as a redshirt freshman) could be a game-changer—if he’s fully recovered.
GW’s transfer class has also turned heads, earning praise from outlets like CBS Sports and The Athletic. Dinkins, a Duquesne standout, could start at point guard or provide offensive spark off the bench. Venezuelan guard Jean Aranguren, a Hofstra transfer, brings elite defense and a stat-stuffing resume (14.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists per game). Up front, 6’7” Canadian forward Bubu Benjamin (Tarleton State) is a mismatch nightmare with his size, shooting, and athleticism. Tyrone Marshall Jr. (Western Kentucky) adds NCAA Tournament experience, while Luke Hunger (Northwestern) provides versatility as a backup center or stretch four.
But with all this talent comes a puzzle: who starts? Castro is the only lock, leaving Caputo and his staff with tough decisions. Do Jones and Autry earn starting roles as returning stars, or do Dinkins and Aranguren get the nod based on their previous starting experience? Should Johnson be eased back into action off the bench, or is he ready for a starting role? And how will Benjamin, Marshall, and Hunger fit into the rotation? Sources say GW’s recent scrimmage against Temple focused on experimenting with lineups, but the answers remain unclear.
Johnson’s health is the elephant in the room. While reports suggest he’s trending in the right direction—CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein confirmed his clearance for basketball activities—his scrimmage performance was just ‘OK.’ Still, insiders say he’s ‘playing like his old self’ in practice. If he’s truly back, GW’s ceiling rises dramatically.
The non-conference schedule offers resume-boosting opportunities, including a neutral-site game against South Florida, the Cayman Islands Classic, and a showdown with reigning national champion Florida. But the first real test comes Saturday against Georgetown—a rivalry game that hasn’t happened since 1981. With both teams ranked closely in KenPom, it’s a must-watch.
GW is undoubtedly in the A-10’s top tier this season, alongside VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton, and Loyola Chicago. If Caputo can unlock the right lineup and rotation, this team could make a deep March run. But here’s the question: with so many moving parts, can they gel in time? And is this team truly as good as the hype suggests? Let us know what you think in the comments—this is one debate that’s far from over.
