Fantasy Football Week 11 is here, and if you're not paying attention to funnel defenses, you're leaving points on the table. But what exactly is a funnel defense, and how can it transform your lineup decisions? Let’s dive in.
Each week of the 2025 NFL season, I’ll spotlight teams facing defenses that funnel opponents into either passing or rushing at unusually high rates. These defenses can create golden opportunities for fantasy players—if you know where to look. But here’s where it gets controversial: identifying these defenses isn’t an exact science. Game scripts can go haywire, and even the best-laid plans can crumble. Still, analyzing matchups through this lens has proven invaluable in recent seasons, offering clarity in the weekly start-sit agony we all endure.
With Week 11 upon us, the data is richer than ever, and the opportunities are ripe for the picking. Let’s break down the key matchups, starting with the pass funnel defenses.
▶ Pass Funnel Matchups: Where Air Yards Reign Supreme
Chargers vs. Jaguars: Jacksonville has emerged as the poster child for pass funnel defenses this season. Through Week 10, the Jaguars are facing a league-high 66% neutral pass rate—a staggering 7% above expectation. Seven of their last eight opponents have passed more than expected, and the path to beating them is clear: exploit their middling coverage and rattle Trevor Lawrence. Enter the Chargers, a team that loves to air it out. Only the Cardinals and Chiefs have been more pass-heavy, with the Chargers throwing on 61% of neutral plays. This matchup could spell big games for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and even Keenan Allen, especially if Oronde Gadsden II sits with a quad injury. Gadsden, if active, is a near must-start in 12-team leagues against a Jags defense allowing 9.5 tight end targets per game.
Texans vs. Titans: Just days after highlighting Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins as regression candidates, I’m now touting them as Week 11 sleepers against the Titans’ increasingly exploitable pass funnel defense. Tennessee has faced the second-highest pass rate over expected in 2025, and it’s no wonder—they’ve allowed the eighth-highest completion rate over expected and the sixth-highest QB rating. The Texans, surprisingly pass-heavy this season (58% neutral pass rate), are poised to capitalize. Even without C.J. Stroud, who’s still sidelined after a concussion, Davis Mills could be a superflex option. Keep an eye on Jaylen Noel and Jayden Higgins in deep leagues—Higgins was targeted on 29% of his routes last week.
And this is the part most people miss: While these matchups look promising, they’re not without risk. Game scripts can shift, and defenses can adjust. But if you’re willing to roll the dice, the rewards could be massive.
▶ Run Funnel Matchups: Ground and Pound
Bucs vs. Bills: This game pits two extremes against each other: Tampa’s pass funnel defense versus Buffalo’s run funnel defense. The Bills have been gashed on the ground, allowing a league-high 3.2 yards after contact per rush since Week 6. Tampa, despite a top-8 neutral pass rate, could lean on the run here, especially if Bucky Irving returns. That could limit targets for Bucs pass catchers like Tez Johnson and Cade Otton, but Emeka Egbuka remains a safe bet.
Bears vs. Vikings: This matchup is a fantasy goldmine—both teams rank among the worst at defending the deep ball. Expect splash plays aplenty. But here’s the twist: the Bears have quietly become a run-first team under Ben Johnson, with a 50% neutral pass rate since Week 5. Facing a Vikings defense that sees the fifth-lowest pass rate over expected, D’Andre Swift could feast. Kyle Monangai, who scored last week, is a deep-league flex option. As for the passing game, Rome Odunze is the only Bears receiver I’d trust in 12-team leagues—unless you’re desperate for a flex or tight end.
Controversial Take: Are we overvaluing pass funnel matchups? While they offer high ceilings, the volatility of game scripts can turn these plays into duds. What’s your take? Let me know in the comments—do you prioritize funnel defenses, or do you play it safe with more consistent options?
Week 11 is shaping up to be a wild ride. Strap in, and may your lineups thrive!
